IRC Newsletter

BREAKING THE DOHA DEADLOCK: CONGRESS COULD PLAY A PIVOTAL ROLE
Sandra Polaski. Policy Outlook 31, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Web posted January 8, 2007.

World Trade Organization (WTO) talks are stalemated over agricultural trade primarily due to an impasse over perceived trade-distorting subsidies to the U.S. farm sector. The majority of the countries participating in the Doha Round “have been unwilling to agree to what they see as maximum concessions by themselves in return for minimal concessions by the United States.” More significantly, other countries have refused to open their markets for goods and services until the agricultural deal has been outlined.

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IN THEIR OWN WORDS: HIZBOLLAH’S STRATEGY IN THE CURRENT CONFRONTATION
Amal Saad-Ghorayeb. Policy Outlook No. 32, Democracy and Rule of Law Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. January 2007.

“The confrontation between the March 8 opposition, led by Hizbollah, and the March 14 forces that control the Lebanese government threatens to shatter Lebanon’s stability.” After Syria withdrew its military last year, there were high hopes that Lebanon would be able to attain sovereignty, democracy, and prosperity; but the election of 2005 and the Israeli-Hizbollah war have further divided the country. “In a series of interviews conducted in early December, Hizbollah officials present their own, different views of the confrontation.

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MONEY LAUNDERING AND ITS REGULATION
Alberto Chong and Florencio L ό pez-de-Silanes. Research Department Working Paper 590, Inter-American Development Bank. January 2007.

As terrorist attacks have increased, so have the activities dealing with money laundering. This paper investigated the regulations in over 80 countries and developed indices of money laundering regulations. “The paper finds that tougher money laundering regulations, particularly those that criminalize feeding activities and improve disclosure, are linked to lower levels of money laundering across countries. . .”

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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR BIPARTISAN CONSENSUS—2007: WHAT BOTH REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS WANT IN US FOREIGN POLICY
Steven Kull. Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA), Center for International and Security Studies in Maryland (CISSM) and Center on Policy Attitudes (COPA). January 2007.

WorldPublicOpinion.org conducted a public opinion survey on international issues as well as reviewed a number of other polls conducted over the past year and a half. The questions concerned the following areas: making foreign policy; the U.S. role in the world; use of military force; spending priorities; weapons of mass destruction (WMD) proliferation; multilateral institutions; human rights; environment; international trade; and regional issues.

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AIDS PANDEMIC INFLUENZA AND THE VALUE OF INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS
oshua M. Epstein, D. Michael Goedecke, Feng Yu, Robert J. Morris, Diane K. Wagener, and Georgiy V. Bobaskev. Center on Social and Economic Dynamics (CSED) Working Paper No. 46, The Brookings Institute and RTI Institute. December 12, 2006.

“Rvachev and Longini (1985) developed a deterministic, equation-based SEIR model to study the role of global air travel in the 1968-1969 influenza pandemic.” This study updates that model using current population levels, air travel patterns, and adjusted seasonality parameters to come up with a current model. The authors’ conclusion was that “the cost to the U.S. economy of international air passenger travel restrictions is minimal: on the order of 0.5% of gross national product. Since the benefit of travel restrictions can be substantial while their costs are minimal, their dismissal as an aid in dealing with a global pandemic seems premature.”

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CHINESE NUCLEAR FORCES AND U.S. NUCLEAR WAR PLANNING
Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris and Matthew G. McKinzie. Federation of American Scientists and the Natural Resources Defense Council. November 2006.

A nuclear arms race is emerging between the U.S. and China, but it is not on the scale that existed between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. The U.S.-China relationship is very different than that of the U.S.-Soviet relationship in view of the fact that China supplies the U.S. with an array of goods and holds billions of dollars of U.S. debt. The authors believe that neither country would benefit from an arms race.

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THE WTO, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY RIGHTS, AND THE ACCESS TO MEDICINES CONTROVERSY
Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress. Updated December 12, 2006.

“In August 2003, the World Trade Organization (WTO) reached an agreement on the use of compulsory licenses by developing countries without manufacturing capacity to access life-sustaining medicines. This agreement was incorporated as an amendment to Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) Agreement.” Developed countries view the TRIPS agreement essential to protect the pharmaceutical industry and to help the industry recoup costs of new medicines. The U.S. has been forceful in defending pharmaceuticals but agreed to support the 2005 TRIPS amendment. The 109 th Congress introduced legislation to grant compulsory licenses, but the legislation did not pass. It is expected to be reintroduced in the 110 th Congress.

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THE IMPACT OF BIG-BOX STORES ON RETAIL FOOD PRICES AND THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Ephraim Leibtag. Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. December 2006.

“Over the past 10 years, the growth of nontraditional retail food outlets has transformed the food market landscape, increasing the variety of shopping and food options available to consumers, as well as price variation in retail food market. This report focuses on these dynamics and how they affect food price variation across store format types.” Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), over the past 20 years food prices have increased on average of 3 percent annually, but food prices on similar products can vary by 10 percent or more across store formats.

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TARGET: INTENSITY: AN ANALYSIS OF GREENHOUSE GAS INTENSITY TARGETS
Timothy Herzog, Kevin A. Baumert, and Jonathan Pershing. World Resources Institute. November 2006.

This report looks at intensity targets which are policies that specify emissions reductions relative to productivity or economic output whereas absolute emissions targets specify reductions measured in metric tons, relative only to a historical baseline. The report explores intensity targets and their underlying indicators, rationales, real-world applications, and implementation issues. The report found that “across countries, absolute emissions and emissions intensity have little correlations; countries with high total emissions often have relatively low emissions intensity and vice versa.”

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WHAT DOES PERFORMANCE IN GRADUATE SCHOOL PREDICT? GRADUATE ECONOMICS EDUCATION AND STUDENT OUTCOMES
Susan Athey, Lawrence F. Katz, Alan B. Krueger, Steven Levitt and James Poterba. American Economic Association. Web posted January 9, 2007.

“Our results indicate that students’ grades in required core courses are highly correlated across subjects. The Ph.D. admissions committee’s evaluation of a student predicts first-year grades and Ph.D. completion, but not job placement. First-year performance is a strong predictor of Ph.D. completion. Most importantly, we find that first-year Micro and Macro grades are statistically significant predictors of student job placement, even conditional on Ph.D. completion. Conditional on first-year grades, GRE scores, foreign citizenship, sex and having a prior Masters degree do not predict job placement. Students who attended elite undergraduate universities and liberal arts colleges are more likely to be placed in top ranked academic jobs.”

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WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS 2007
Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), The United Nations. January 2007.

The Global outlook: Slower economic growth in 2007—moderating to 3.2 per cent, down from the estimated 3.8 per cent in 2006 Continued growth in developing counties—5.9 percent for developing countries and 6.5 per cent for economies in transition which is down slightly from 2006 of 6.5 and 7.2 per cent respectively; Insufficient employment growth—unemployment dipped slightly in developed economies in 2006, but the developing world did not have growth strong enough to reduce unemployment rates; and Benign inflation outlook—higher oil prices caused higher inflation in most economies during 2006, but only moderate inflationary pressures are expected in 2007 due to a slowdown in the global economic growth and tighter monetary policies.

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CASTRO’S CUBA: QUO VADIS?
Francisco Wong-Diaz. Strategic Studies Institute. U.S. Army War College. Web posted December 29, 2006.

The paper contributes to the depth of knowledge about Castro’s Cuba in a time of transition. Castro provisionally delegated presidential powers to his brother, Raul, in July, 2006. This paper examines alternative scenarios for a post-Castro Cuba: (1) a violent regime change; (2) a peaceful transition to democracy; or (3) a dynastic succession. According to the paper, a violent overthrow is highly unlikely since there is no organized armed opposition in Cuba. A peaceful transition to democracy and a free market economy is also unlikely since there is no solidarity movement or opposition leader. The Cuban civil society is weak and dissidents are unable to work openly.

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THE IRANIAN PETROLEUM CRISIS AND UNITED STATES NATIONAL SECURITY
Roger Stern. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), National Academy of Science. Web posted December 30, 2006.

“The U.S. case against Iran is based on Iran’s deceptions regarding nuclear weapons development. This case is buttressed by assertions that a state so petroleum-rich cannot need nuclear power to preserve export, as Iran claims.” The authors surveyed Iran’s petroleum economy to ascertain if there was such a decline. Their results show “absent some change in Irani policy, this ratio will be 0.33-0.46 with exports declining to zero by 2014-2015. Energy subsidies, hostility to foreign investment, and inefficiencies of its state-planned economy underlies Iran’s problem, which has no relation to “peak oil.””

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LONG OVERDUE: A FRESH LOOK AT PUBLIC AND LEADERSHIP ATTITUDES ABOUT LIBRARIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Public Agenda. Web posed January 4, 2007.

“People love their libraries.” People see their libraries as the best-run institutions in the community. This opinion research study found that 80 percent of the respondents said that “all children should have a good, safe appealing library in their neighborhood.” However, some local political and business leaders feel that with home computers and the Internet, people may not see libraries as high priorities for their tax dollars. Most importantly, what was heard “loud and clear from both leadership and the public was that the mission of libraries should remain much the same in terms of free and open access to all citizens and maintaining core library services—efficient and friendly librarians, current books and reference materials, programs for children and well-maintained buildings.”

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REMEMBERING GEORGE KENNAN: LESSONS FOR TODAY?
Melvyn P. Leffler. U.S. Institute of Peace. December 2006.

George F. Kennan, known as the father of containment, was a Foreign Service officer in the U.S. Embassy in Moscow when he wrote the “Long Telegram” in February 1946. Some of the key points of his 1946 telegram and the Walgreen Lectures of 1950 were: the emphasis of a Soviet threat; the need for reconstruction of Western Europe and rebuilding of western Germany and Japan; containment was a prelude to rollback; the U.S. need to negotiate and compromise; and the U.S. could not transform the world. “Leffler reviews Kennan’s legacy and ponders the implications of his thinking for the contemporary era.”

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WHAT MAKES CITIES HEALTHY?
Shahid Yusuf, Kaoru Nabeshima and Wei Ha. The World Bank and Harvard University. January 2007.

Improving the health of the poor is a key Millennium Development Goal. Many believe that increased public spending on health (backed by foreign assistance and an international effort for drugs and vaccines) will ensure better health outcomes in developing nations. This research “suggests that the four most potent policy interventions are: water and sanitation systems; urban land use and transport planning; effective primary care and health programs aimed at influencing diets and lifestyles; and education.” The authors believe that “health care policies are likely to depend upon an acceleration of economic growth rates which increase household purchasing power and enlarge the pool of resources available to national and sub-national governments to invest in health related infrastructure and services.”

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